‘What is Europe prepared to do to protect its own security and defense?’ It was the opening question from former top diplomat François Heisbourg at a REKA Symposium on EU-Ukraine relations in The Hague on March 4, organized by Raam op Russia, Open Door Ukraine and the Dutch Helsinki Committee. According to Heisbourg, who is currently a senior advisor for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Europe faces the “only imperial project left” on the continent, but is still guided by the fear of escalation. Meanwhile, “the United States is not currently providing any military assistance to Ukraine. From the Ukrainian perspective, Trump is already in power.”
Now that the European Council has given the green light to accession negotiations with Ukraine, the symposium in The Hague focused on the geopolitical and economic prospects of an enlarged European Union. In his geopolitical keynote speech to an audience of policymakers, experts and politicians, Heisbourg painted a bleak picture of European security in the near future. ‘European defense spending and the 2% target are still based on the situation almost twenty years ago, in the good old days, when the Russian armed forces had not yet been modernized. 2% is yesterday’s number.’ Moreover, the EU is dependent on the United States, whose unwavering support for European security cannot be taken for granted in light of the possible re-election of Donald Trump and the risk of China opening a new global front in Taiwan. In the meantime, according to Heisbourg, Russia is busy shaping a war that it can sustain for years. “The burden of the war on Russia is comparable to that of the Algerian war against France, which lasted for years and ended only thanks to the political will of General De Gaulle.”
Heisbourg does not rule out the possibility of a “nightmare scenario” in which Ukraine loses the war due to depletion of its military and insufficient support from the US and Europe. The lack of an effective rotation system for the Ukrainian armed forces could lead to a sudden collapse of the defense lines. Without the US, Europe would have to deal with the disruptive consequences of a Ukrainian defeat, which could lead to tensions within the EU and NATO. “It is imperative that Europe becomes aware of this danger and acts accordingly to prevent such a scenario.”
‘Europe needs a long-term deterrence strategy’
Heisbourg was joined in a geopolitical panel by Joanneke Balfoort, Director of Security & Defense at the European External Action Service, General (ret.) Dick Berlin, former Chief of Defense of the Netherlands, and Justyna Gotkowska, Deputy Director at OSW Center for Eastern Studies . They all shared Heisbourg’s bleak view of European security for the coming years. General Berlin pointed out that Europe has failed to take the initiative on the continent: “If you don’t want war, prepare for war.” While supporting Ukraine should be the main short-term strategy, Europe also needs unity and a long-term deterrent strategy against Russia. “Otherwise the war will one day be on our doorstep,” Berlin said.
EU leaders often claim to support Ukraine whatever and however long it takes, but Justyna Gotkowska argued that the European strategy is guided by fear of escalation and spillovers, rather than a Ukrainian victory. ‘The European strategy is based on the false assumption that Putin will sooner or later tire of the war, and while Western Europeans do not believe that a Ukrainian defeat is a threat to European security, the debate in Poland and the Baltic states is focused at the moment when the war will come to us and how we can defend ourselves.’
How then can the EU and Ukraine develop a long-term security strategy for the European continent? The very first European industrial defense strategy , presented on March 5, is a step in the right direction, according to Joanneke Balfoort. “We must develop a coherent strategy together with Ukraine, including joint procurement, as if it were already an EU member state.” Heisbourg noted that Europe is no longer used to a defense industry after a long peace: “Just look at your banker’s face when you tell him you want to open a munitions factory.” It is time for Europe to master the escalation process, he notes: “We have deterred ourselves in the name of the so-called Russian red lines that we – and not Russia – have set.”
Economic opportunities: land, infrastructure, and human capital
While the war continues, Ukrainians have already started rebuilding their country. Live from Kiev, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov took part in the REKA conversation for the recovery of Ukraine. Kubrakov explicitly linked the country’s reconstruction to the path to EU membership, indicating Ukraine’s willingness to work with European partners to rebuild the country in line with the EU’s sustainability goals. Dutch expertise in water management is already being deployed to tackle the aftermath of the Kakhovka dam explosion. “EU membership has been our goal since the Revolution of Dignity in 2013. We Ukrainians do not want to miss this opportunity.”
According to Olena Zerkal, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for European Integration and keynote speaker at the economic session, Ukraine’s integration into the EU will provide opportunities for both. It is a matter of ‘connecting the dots’: the EU has financial resources, technology and experience, but also needs in terms of supply chains. On the Ukrainian side, there is a need to rebuild the country and promote economic growth, and the country has a lot of available land, infrastructure and human capital. The preconditions for European investments have improved. ‘The war changed the economic landscape. The oligarchs have lost significant parts of their pre-war positions,” Zerkal said. ‘Now we have to create Europe within Ukraine.’
In the subsequent panel discussion, Willem Coppoolse, director of a Ukrainian energy company, pointed out the increasingly important role that the Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure plays in the European energy market. Kees Huizinga, a Dutch farmer in Ukraine, highlighted the enormous potential of the country’s agricultural sector, with millions of hectares of arable land. ‘Ukrainian farmers are extremely efficient and do not even need European subsidies. There is a lot of growth potential in Ukrainian agriculture, and it could even take pressure off the sector in the rest of Europe.” Although the war continues, Ukrainian export facilities are recovering. The Ukrainian merchant fleet in the Black Sea is slowly returning to pre-war levels.
Iryna Tytarchuk, a Ukrainian economist and entrepreneur, and Jeroen Ketting from LifeLine Ukraine, emphasized the strong entrepreneurial mentality they face every day in Ukraine. “By 2023, 300,000 individual enterprises were founded in Ukraine, as well as 37,000 new companies,” Tytarchuk noted. According to Ketting, the Ukrainian economy is “not only viable, but also vibrant,” even in times of war.
“Today’s debate has shown that the integration of Ukraine into the European Union does not primarily entail risks, but rather offers opportunities,” said former Dutch ambassador to Ukraine Kees Klompenhouwer in his closing speech. ‘There is a geopolitical need to support Ukraine and jointly strengthen Europe’s security. Moreover, the economic session made us aware of how diversified the Ukrainian economy is.”
The symposium Ukraine in the EU: geopolitical and economic opportunities was organized by Window on Russia , Open Door Ukraine and the Dutch Helsinki Committee under the umbrella of REKA .